Friday, March 27, 2009

Election 09: Results and scorecard

We don't have final figures. We hope to have them some time today. We would already have them if the ULSU website had been updated but given that it hasn't been updated with anything new since last December we'll probably have to get results another way. Or wait two weeks for An Focal to pretend that a two-week old election is still news.

The winners:

President:
Ruan Dillon Mcloughlin

Education:
Aoife Finnerty

Campaigns and services:
Fergal Dempsey

Communications:
Aoife Ni Raghaillaigh

Our quick grade based on our predictions: 4 out of 5

It's a bit more complicated than that though. We got the communications race result wrong but said it was going to be tight. It could have gone either way with the people on the ground and an intervention from experienced campaigners would have tipped it as we said before. Our predictions for President and Campaigns and Services were precise, including the position of the also-rans. In Education the gap between Finnerty and her rivals was a lot bigger than we thought. And we got second-place wrong, Collison-Ryan put up a stronger showing than we thought, although there were large transfers between him and Kerins that never came into play. The rumours floating around that Kerins would have a large cohort out on Thursday proved false and that made the difference. We were the only election blog to predict a Finnerty win. We'd still give ourselves a B+ on the prediction front. When we get full results they will be posted, as well as some commentary on the week.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Final predictions

We could get it wrong. But predictions are good as they tend to get campaigners scared.

Communications

Ni Raghaillaigh scored a big own goal with her defence of a propaganda-based An Focal. Everyone knows it and based on the piles of unread copies all this year, everyone dislikes it. But we don't remember anyone ever saying in advance that they'd do it and the leaping defence from Pa O'Brien and Aoife Breen should travel as news around campus and Dolphin could benefit greatly from it. Tight race, but we're predicting a narrow win for Dolphin.

Campaigns and Services
Bourke will come third. Transfers shouldn't matter. Lawlor will try but will fail. First count win for Dempsey.

Education
Another tight race and this one could get bitchy. Transfers will be important. This will go to multiple counts. We think Kerins will be ahead after the first count. Thomas will be fourth. The all-important question is whether Finnerty or Collison Ryan will be second as we think there will be a big transfer of votes between the two. Finnerty is likely to be second as Collison Ryan doesn't have the campaigning staying power or manpower and then the final squeeze will begin. Very close and it will come down to whoever has most people selling them on the day. We're calling it very narrowly for Finnerty.

President
It's a two-horse race between Dillon McLoughlin and Gardiner. Conway is likely to come far behind. Gardiner will do his best but can't be a match for the kayak and Fianna Fail powered Dillon McLoughlin juggernaught. Easy win. Dillon McLoughlin.

The plebiscite
No to fees might do rather well. Despite socialist youth aka FEE campaigning for it. With a large majority expected, some people might vote for something else just to spite them.

Hustings

We'd use the word "controversial". Or "WTF". 99% of you weren't there so we'd better explain what hustings are. The candidates line up on a stage. They talk. You listen. You ask questions. You hope they answer them. There's a microphone. You go home with a better idea of who's good and who's just there to get laid.

Then again, there are ULSU hustings.

It was all supposed to kick off at 2pm. We found this out by hanging around and asking people. There might have been more people there if it had been advertised in any meaningful way. This was almost a secret hustings organised by the SU. At 2pm, they were starting to assemble the stage in the stables courtyard. Only the curious and the determined would manage to see what was going on with the candidates and the microphone as there was no advertising for the democratic process at all. It had been mentioned in An Focal but with over a thousand of the previous issue from two weeks ago still sitting inside the SU door given that people aren't reading it any more, we're not confident that all that many people had picked up the new one.

Damian Cahill is a good lad but he's not really down with the responsibility thing. The blame for the non-erection of the stage can be laid on the ents people it seems. The ones who are hired by the SU to run discos and rag weeks. Damian is the Campaigns and Services officer. This includes Services, which includes Ents. Damian opened the meeting by welcoming everyone, or at least those that bothered, and said he wouldn't apologise for the late start as it wasn't his fault. Who's keeeping an eye on Ents then?

After the long unexplained delay, things finally got going. The chair was a former SU president but it appeared that no-one explained the rules to him as there were quite a few people in the crowd wanting to add comments after the questions without actually asking questions. Was Joe Wallace not available? He's been chairing most of them since before any of us remember. And was the new guy booked at the last minute or something?

Following established protocol, and probably the rules, it kicked off with communications.

Communications

Dolphin formally said that he'd cut Pulse. Might actually be a good idea, the content could be folded into An Focal to make the paper stronger and save over ten grand a year. It's the kind of money that could go a long way towards other things that people might care a bit more about.

We were expecting the two candidates to be neck and neck on presentation or even for Ni Raghaillaigh to be ahead. Dolphin is a tech head. With very few exceptions, tech heads don't make good public speakers or know how to use a crowd. But it was Dolphin who answered questions confidently without using notes while Ni Raghaillaigh carefully read a prepared speech without looking at the crowd at all.

The contraversial bit. The current officers managed to make arses of themselves during the communications questions when the subject of An Focal being a propaganda paper cane up for discussion. Ni Raghaillaigh said it was just the way it was while Dolphin said it wasn't the way it should be. If the ping pong discussion between the two wasn't enough, president Pa O'Brien stepped up, followed by current editor Aoife Breen, and said that was the way it was and it would be so forever more. It must have touched off a nerve in them as it was totally out of order.

What we're curious about is whether this will be enough to get last year's An Focal editor off the fence and plunge down into the campaigning mire. Seamus Ryan reputedly spent an entire year battling with his fellow officers to tone down the propaganda factor in An Focal and turn it into an actual newspaper. Catering for the student voice and the dissenting voice was the thing he was most vocal about and it was probably the reason he got elected. We reckon its the return to the old non-veiled propaganda that has resulted in his not contributing to the paper at all since Aoife of the Breens took over. The trouble is that we''ve seen Ryan campaigning to a crowd of people one by one in the past and he's probably the best at it that we've ever seen, switching effortlessly between topics to hammer home a position and get multiple votes. As this was important enough to him two years ago to base his campaign around it, it might be enough to get him out in the trenches campaigning for Dolphin. The turnover of a few hundred votes that would result purely from that would be enough to tip the election Dolphin's way. It's a pity he didn't run himself, he's been around long enough to know something about everything and always been blunt enough to make any election interesting. And it would have been nice to see
to see a bit of pure substance entered into some of the races.

Outcome: strong showing from Dolphin. Less strong showing from Ni Raghaillaigh. It may not matter tomorrow. We see them as being neck and neck and either of them could take home the prize. There can be only one.

Campaigns and Services

The CSO hust brought foward the three campaigners for the position and we finally got to see what some of them looked like.

Darragh Bourke promised a bigger better rag week but didn't really say how. He also promised an off-licence for the college but didn't really say how.

Fergal Dempsey promised better acts on campus but didn't say how. And the mighty craic with bring your own beer parties. He could talk to Darragh Bourke to help out with that, with the off-licence Bourke promised that Dempsey didn't.

Michelle Lawlor tried very hard not to mention the Blizzards. She wants less cars, more bus lanes and lots of free nights out for students. And that kind of thing. But she didn't really say how. She also wants vending machines in the library, which is sure to send the staff there into the heart attack zone unless it just sells bottled water.

Not all that interestingly, but slightly, Bourke was the only one to mention the big blowup cinema screen. We'd forgotten it existed. It cost about ten grand and has only been used the once as far as we can tell. It hasn't been used at all this year and we're guessing it's under somebody's bed.

The wannabe CSOs were asked to list what bands they'd secure for UL. Not much outcome there but we did find out that Lawlor can name two bands that aren't the Blizzards.

This one we're calling for Dempsey. There's no more substance there than there is for the other two but he will have enough people around to make a big noise. Bourke will finish a fading third. Lawlor could steal it if she has enough people out and about and makes a strong dive at the female vote, picking up a few fellas along the way but we think this race is over. As we've thought from the start. Dempsey will have to repair the view that even the students who care about the SU have about this job, there hasn't been much value fmor it in the past two years.

Education

Education was a tighter run, at least between Finnerty and Kerins. They both brought enough supporters with them to make a bit of noise, more than their competitors.

David James James Collison Ryan talked a lot about his experience. A quick run into the underrepresentation of international students was a stab at the floating vote of the unindoctrinated. Shame none of them knew it was on.

Not so many questions for the education candidates. It's a boring job and everyone knows it.

They were asked about how they'd reform class reps. It appears that even class reps know that it's boring so they don't go. Finnerty wants to hammer home that it's not just about the hoodies. Kerins wants training to be provided in the evenings, which we remember being done last year anyway. Thomas wants better communication. Collison Ryan wants to change the perception of class reps. Nothing of any substance there then.

The most interesting question of the entire affair came from habitual troublemaker and last year's editor Seamus Ryan. Even officially staying out of the election completely by the looks of things, he's been as much a feature in the background as any of the runners, which is why he's getting a second mention here, especially given that we know he was asked to be campaign manager for more than one of the candidates and has probably had a cuppa with more than half of them in the past week. Being a bit older than the kids currently running the show, he's got a habit of asking questions that throw people and this one certainly did. The fees plebiscite. Not all that interested in what the candidates were thinking was their first option, as students are hardly going to vote for fees when they can vote for no fees, the question was what their second option was. After the shock of being asked a pointed question faded, the candidates all managed to give a different answer to the question. Kerins favours graduate loans. Thomas wants the current situation with means testing. Collison Ryan finished with no nay never to fees but likes graduate taxes as a fallback. Finnerty wants increased general taxation. The most resolute answer came from Finnerty but as she answered last she had an extra minute or two to think of one.

This is a tough one to call. We reckon it's a competition between the two women as Collison Ryan doesn't appear to have the manpower to win the election. Neither does Thomas. It's for Kerins or Finnerty to win and while Kerins may have a slight edge, either candidate could take it depending on transfers and how many people they have at their call tomorrow.

President

The presidential debate was interesting, if only because we all finally knew that Mark Conway is not a 60-year old guy. He looks about 20 and likes to wear hats. He did mention that he knows that some people think he's taking the piss, which makes him very in touch with what students are thinking right now. He also wants an off-licence in UL and wants to bring back the buzz. We wouldn't call him a stoner but he dresses and acts like one. Probably a nice guy though, it's good to see an outsider running. He insisted on telling us he was an outsider though, flinging around the word clique more than Dempsey did in his manifesto. After the Communications debate silliness with the current guys, he's probably got a point. We liked him. Not that we'd vote for him or anything.

Ruan Dillon Mcloughlin wants to see a fulltime person hired to deal with lecturer complaints. We know that's not going to happen any time soon if ever but it's something new, even if it just follows the "hire new person to do something you see as a problem" line. He didn't deal with his manifesto content at all, saying he wanted to talk about new things. We're hoping he was involved in the writing of his manifesto but even if he wasn't, he can get around to reading it over the weekend. He came across a lot better than the other two candidates. That's typical of the presidential race, people vote for the person they like the best. Perhaps he wrote his own manifesto, who knows.

Eamon Gardiner took a strong law and order and society falling apart line on pretty much everything. While he wants more buses and an integrated transport policy, we were much more interested in his view that there will be beatings if he doesn't get elected. He fielded a question that had been blatantly planted to knock him back on what candidates have put aside for this week rather well. It looks silly when campaign managers who are obviously running at some point in the future make total tits of themselves so perhaps the joke was on one Paddy Rockett, current community officer, future election candidate and Dempsey campaign manager, who could have been high at the time. It was rather obvious. And cliquey. Mark Conway could have made hay on it if there was anyone there to listen.

The Dillon McLoughlin party machine is likely to steam home on this one. Whether or not he's a secret member of Fianna Fail, he'll have some extra help from the party when the polls open as he's backed by one of their mein UL men (Daly). He may not even need the help with his kayak cohort out in the trenches. Conway will trail at the bottom of the poll, Gardiner will do respectably but we can't see him coming close to stealing it.

The WTF bit. For some reason there was a question towards the end from Damian Cahill. Aware that the entire thing had started over half an hour late and probably aware thst students have better thing to be doing with their time like studying, he asked the candidates why they thought there was such a small number of students at the hustings. Dillon McLoughlin said it was because students weren't properly told it was on. Gardiner said the same thing. Conway mentioned the clique. Full marks to all three. The two things we came away with were a sense of wonder about that the chair of the Electoral and Referenda board was doing asking questions of candidates in the first place and why the Campaigns and Services officer was still looking for pointers on how to get students to an event nine months into his term of office. Easy answer. Tell people that it's on. Almost nobody knew.

What we liked about the whole debacle was that there were lots of questions asked. Most of them were plants. But unusually, not all of them were plants. And it was far too cold to have such an event outside, which should have caused a move in venue as the stage hadn't been set up by 2pm. The crowd would have moved, most of them were campaigners. But they stayed, even if it was just to make noise and pretend that their chosen candidate had more friends than could be counted.

Based on what we see in the final day of campaigning, our thoughts may change a bit but we are readiy to make our final predictions

What we've seen

Interesting start to the campaigns by some candidates, non-start to the campaign by other candidates. Do these guys not know that if they don't bother doing anything at all they won't get their forty euro deposit back?

Mark Conway could be our next president. Or the next guy to lock up his daughter for 24 years in his basement. We could go either way on this one. We're not sure what possessed him to use a picture of Joe Fritzl on his leaflets but the word is that he thinks that any publicity is good. If he's doing a joke stunt he's going to have to make it funnier or tell people. We've come across a few people who now think that Mark Conway is about 60 years of age with a dodgy look in his beady eye. We haven't met the chap though so perhaps he does. Someone should tell him that campaigning is good if you want votes. If nobody tells him it may be like the Paddy McHugh campaign for president last year, where he didn't start campaigning until it was too late for anyone to care.

Eamon Gardiner's facebook group has let us know that he's been through EVERY stage in UL life now from undergraduate to postgraduate. Aren't those the first two and joined together. When he reads, does he let people know that he's read EVERY page now from page 1 to page 2 and all the pages in between? He's also pretty sure that if pensioners can stop the government than 100,000 students can too. Good luck getting 100,000 students out for anything. Even free porn wouldn't get 100,000 students out. The pensioners like their days out to protest, it gives them a chance to catch up with their non-dead friends when they've nothing else to do, which is all the time. He also spells his surname "GARDINDER" on his flyer, which is presumably his secret identity to fool the feds. He also guarantees to bring high profile bands to UL. We think this means that we will all get to have breakfast with the Blizzards if we hang around long enough.


Ruan Dilloin Mcloughlin (yes, it's Dillon Mcloughlin, we got it assways before) wants to make the Union more relevant to all students. No, we've never heard that one before. He's picked up a fianna failer as his campaign manager. It's the kind of thing we'd half-expect students to notice but the political parties seem to arrive into student union elections by stealth until the day you notice that there's nobody running but political party candidates. Or if there aren't any candidates available they'll latch on anyway, making it look good to their overmasters who may eventually present them with the key to the junior executive washroom. The guy in question, Derek Daly, ran for a senior position on the kiddie FF council last year but didn't manage it so a win here might help him get another brownie point until the day he gets the badge. Ruan Dillon Mcloughlin wants to run a day link bus service to the housing estates around Castletroy. We guess this is because students are tired of smelling the residents. Or just don't like walking. In any case he'll be lucky to get anyone to fund it. We're putting this in the same box as the question current president Pa O'Brien asked last year about why we can't get the real Christy Moore for rag week instead of the Christy "this is just a tribute" band. It plays well with the plebs but that's all its for. Unless he charges money to use it. Then it'll be a "bus".

The education candidates got rolling as well.

Emma Kerins seems to have portrayed herself as either a cat lady or a witch, depending on who you ask. We know that cat ladies don't exist and that witches live on their own with cats. Most of them aren't students so perhaps this is a joke that only her campaign team get. It's probably hilarious.

Aoife Finnerty is going after the superhero vote. Such a pity that UL doesn't have many phone boxes but we suppose that when you're elected to the student union, at least you have your own office to change into the costume.

David James Collison Ryan is also racing after the votes from people who like cats, with his logo stolen or a tribute to MGM for some reason. It might be because his initials are DJCR as that instantly conjures up images of MGM. At least it might do to him. We hear on our own grapevine that his real name is David James James Collison Ryan. Yes, we typed it twice. Supposedly he picked the same name for his confirmation as his parents had picked for his baptism. Did no-one tell him that he could pick any other name that the local bishop would approve? We really hope that the sudden introduction of the "James (James) Collison" isn't just some attempt to get himself on top of the ballot paper. Or some kind of appeal to all the UL fans of Portsmouth FC.

Huw Thomas has something of a smothering fetish judging by his poster, which shows him getting down and dirty with Batt O'Keeffe. He's also got a long long list of things to do in his manifesto though.

On to the CSO candidates.

We haven't seen anything from Darragh Bourke. He may not be real.

Michelle Lawlor has a few people around, though again without an awful lot of presence. We didn't manage to pick up one of her leaflets.

Fergal Dempsey has to be seen as the one to beat here, if only because of his support from people who know him through his involvement in clubs. His leaflet is bright and colourful and has more substance than we'd have expected. Also more "f**ks" than we'd have expected. He's probably managed to establish himself in people's minds as the front runner, though it's still possible for Lawlor to catch and pass him.

Next, the communications race.

Slow start but then Dolphin wasn't sure he was actually in the race until Monday morning when Ni Raghaillaigh's objection was withdrawn. And Ni Raghaillaigh didn't know that she definitely had opposition until she realised the objection would be overruled and she withdrew it. Some interesting things from each and they're both going cheap. Dolphin takes issue with the continuation of Pulse, which costs a fortune to produce for something that almost nobody reads. Ni Raghaillaigh promises to do something about the ulsu website, which hasn't been updated since December and almost nobody reads. Then again, Dolphin is promising the same thing. Ni Raghaillaigh is promising an online version of An Focal, which is something that just appears to have not been bothered with this year as the website has copes from the past few years. We don't read the Irish columns all that much but again, that's something that was just dropped this year. Overall, nothing dramatically exciting from either candidate sofar so it will probably come down to how they fare on the ground.

As usual, while people are coming up with some good ideas, there's also the usual populist rhetoric to get in the regulars who don't know what's going on. The north campus photocopier. A campus off-licence. Pay for teaching practice. The security issue. Some of these things are important but at this point they've been issues for so long that we'd like to see more plans about them and less mentioning of them just to get a few extra votes from people who don't know that they've been mentioned by twenty people already in past years.

Declaration Time

We think it would be good to explain at this time that we have no affiliation with any of the candidates. None. And we don't really want an affiliation with any of the candidates either. Bathing once a day is enough. They draw us in with promises of sweets. And in the case of Fergal Dempsey, sex with his campaign manager. We took the sweets.

Everybody seems to have an opinion, except the thousands of students who don't give a crap. But we're not so cheaply bought. And we're not going to be, no sympathy, no caring, no bribery. Some of the sweets were just bad anyway.

It starts

Friday’s nomination close was interesting. In case you don’t know what we’re talking about, University of Limerick student union elections are on this week. You are forgiven if you didn’t notice, campaigners can be such wallflowers at times.

The deal has been for a few years that nominations close, candidates are declared and everyone goes off and has an election. People who don’t know what or who they’re voting for are dragged to the polls or cheaply bribed for their vote and democracy carries on just as the greeks intended.

But not on Friday. In one of those cockups you only hear about from Zimbabwe or somewhere like that, Damian Cahill declared the nomination period over as chair of the grandly-styled Electoral and Referenda board. Then he went into the office of the returning officer, aka Union Secretary General Tomas Costello, who told him that nominations would be closed in two minutes. Cue announcement reversal from Damian. The last candidate arrives, going by the pseudonym of David Dolphin, or at least he would be if Dolphin wasn’t his real name. Where do we get these names? Returning officer accepted his form and then declared the nomination period closed. Listing all candidates, he included two for Communications: Aoife Ni Raghaillaigh and Dolphin, cutting it close to the wire but still deemed on time.

Ni Raghaillaigh objected. Saying it was after 5pm, she maintained his form shouldn’t be accepted and that she should be installed as New Overlord of All Things Communication. Costello as returning officer said he had accepted the form and that his word was final. Then the chair of the Electoral and Referenda board decided it wasn’t, that he was really the master of the universe and that the complaint was valid. Result: Dolphin out, Ni Raghaillaigh new Overlord. The fannying about between board chair and returning officer would make an Albanian government proud.


Word is that the objection didn’t originate with Ni Raghaillaigh. She made the objection as the one who had to but the quiet word is that the push to make the objection came from Aoife Breen, our current resident communicator and Damian Cahill, our current resident campaigner. That’s something we find more than a bit ironic with his requirement to stay neutral as a current Sabbat, requirement to stay neutral as chair of the Electoral and Referenda board and with all the campaigns that have been loudly run in term 2. Oh. Campaigns that might have been run in term 2.


But make the objection she did. And defended it in public. Like this on Boards.ie:


I can understand why you would think it was petty but the reason I objected was because I believe that if the rules are bent at the start of the election then they will be bent throughout the election and this is not fair on any candidate. As other posters have said, the nominations opened last Friday so there was plenty of time to get the form in, and everyone knew when nominations closed. I feel terrible for the trouble this has caused, but I still stand by my objection.


While all this is going on, nosey people stick their heads up out of the mire and let it slip that the deadline is 6pm, not 5. Seems the constitution has something to say about it after all. While we think it was the same nosey people, some of them are quite precise about how the deadline is 6pm. Nosey parkers. Did no-one involved in running the election bother to read the rules? Maybe they were too busy writing new ones.


It all blew over on Monday before the Electoral and Referenda board bothered to meet up the objection was withdrawn. Probably because by the looks of things the Electoral and Referenda board would have overruled the objection. Better to withdraw it than have it blow up in the face.


In the background, we learned of people running for other things that were not communications officer. Clubs king Ruan McLoughlin Dillon for president against twice a bridesmaid once a bride for Education Eamon Gardiner. And someone called Mark Conway as the dark horse. Three candidates for Campaigns and Services including two we had never heard of. Four for education. The recession must be kicking in for people as education is the most boring job in the entire student union.


And no-one wanted to take care of the weaker bunnies and run for welfare. We’re not too sure why, after all the pay is the same.


The final list is:

President

  • Mark Conway
  • Ruán Dillon McLoughlin
  • Eamonn Gardiner


DP/Welfare

  • No nominations. Nominations will open again on Monday at 9am. Forms can be picked up from the reception.


Education

  • David James Collison Ryan
  • Aoife Finnerty
  • Emma Kerins
  • Huw Thomas


Campaigns & Services

  • Darragh Bourke
  • Fergal Dempsey
  • Michelle Lawlor


Communications

  • David Dolphin
  • Aoife Ni Raghallaigh

If you don't know who some of these people are, that's alright. We don't either. We're sure they'll tell us how great they are though.